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Brad Lidge Pitching Vick Scoring Salary Playoffs Blogs Series
Threats to the Phillies going back to the World Series (part 4)
Published: September 4, 2009
The formula to beating the St. Louis Cardinals always used to be simple: Pitch around Albert Pujols and make the rest of the lineup beat you. Pujols was the Cardinals lineup. Hold him without an RBI for a game and a win is yours.
Those Cardinals were an OK team. When healthy the pitching was good and the lineup managed to do just enough to keep the team competitive.
Those Cardinals disappeared just before the All-Star break. The current group in St. Louis is the hottest team in baseball and threat No. 1 to the Philadelphia Phillies returning to the World Series.
Why the Cardinals could beat the Phillies: No team in baseball had a better August than the Cardinals, storming through the month with a 20-5 record. Over that period, St. Louis managed to go from second-place in the NL Central to 10.5 games ahead of the struggling Chicago Cubs. The Cardinals turn around began before August though. Things started coming together for St. Louis in July, when it revamped its offense, trading for Matt Holiday, Mark DeRosa and Julio Lugo.
Holiday has been a perfect fit with his new team, hitting .386 with 37 RBIs in as many games. While in Oakland, Holiday struggled in his first year away from Coors Field, hitting in the mid 200s. Hitting behind the games’ most feared hitter has bolstered Holiday back into the form that made him an All-Star in Colorado.
Lugo, meanwhile, has hit .322 as St. Louis’s new leadoff man.
Then there is Pujols.
Albert is doing what Albert does – hit for power, average and just about anything else you could think of. He is the clear choice as NL MVP and has a league-high 42 home runs. He should still be pitched around; it’s just not as easy anymore.
On the mound, the Cardinals have a great one-two punch in Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright. Finally healthy, Carpenter is a potential Cy Young, sporting a 15-2 record and 2.28 ERA. Wainwright isn’t far behind with a 2.47 ERA and a team high 16 wins.
Joel Piniero is a solid No. 3, posting 14 wins this season.
Why the Cardinals wouldn’t beat the Phillies: With the way the Cardinals are playing right now it is hard to find a weakness in their game. The middle relief is not great, but has been good enough to get the ball to Ryan Franklyn, who has 36 saves in 38 chances.
The Phillies will have a great chance if Tony La Russa – as he often does – over thinks things. La Russa, who likes to bat the pitcher eight, may be tempted to use John Smoltz in his playoff rotation. Don’t be fooled by Smoltz’s recent start against the Phillies, he’s not near the pitcher he used to be. If La Russa goes with Smoltz instead of Piniero as the third starter, the move may backfire.
The Cardinals also lack team-speed, something the Phillies have plenty of.
Would the Cardinals beat the Phillies in a playoff match-up: If the playoffs started today, you would have to make the Cardinals the favorite. They are playing the way the Phillies played down the stretch last year and we all know where that took them. Of course, there is still a month to go and things can change. If the Phillies catch fire over the next couple of weeks and the Cardinals cool off, the edge would go back to the Phils. Either way I would expect this series to go the distance with great pitching and a few big performances from the likes of Howard, Utley, Pujols and Holiday.
There’s a look at the four teams trying to stop the Phillies from returning to the World Series. Time will tell if anyone can knock off the champs.
Tagged with: Adam Wainwright, Albert Pujols, Chris Carpenter, St. Louis Cardinals, World Series
3 Comments on "Threats to the Phillies going back to the World Series (part 4)"
Joseph on Fri, 4th Sep 2009 10:37 pm
Even though they are not as deep on starting pitching and not on the tear the Cardinals have been on, I still feel the Dodgers represent the biggest threat to the Phillies this post season. It is not based on statistics, just a gut feeling. The Cardinals are looking tough recently though. Loved your series this past week, good stuff !
Doug on Sat, 5th Sep 2009 1:24 pm
Now see, I’m on the fence with both. The Cardinals recently have been like a machine. On the other had the Dodgers will want to win just because we beat them last year.
Joe Schwartz on Sat, 5th Sep 2009 2:51 pm
Loved your series this past week. Hopefully the Phillies bats will come around sooner than later. Because right now this team would have a tough time beating anyone.