Before anyone starts sending me e-mails telling me to get off the bandwagon or comments calling for my head let me say that I really would like nothing more than to see the Phillies cruise down the stretch into the playoffs and then roll on like they did last year.   That’s what is in my heart.  Unfortunately, I have to also look at what is realistic which is what I’m doing as I write this article.

So here are the five reasons why I don’t think the Phillies will repeat as World Champions this year, beginning with number five.

5.  Jimmy Rollins Inconsistency.

Say what you want about the big three of Utley, Howard and Ibanez – Rollins makes this team go.  The Phillies record when Rollins scores a run is darn near perfect and it was no accident that when the Phillies went on their 19-3 run it came when Rollins started hitting.  As Jimmy goes, so do the Phillies.

4. Complacency

The deck is stacked hard against any team, not just the Phillies, repeating.  Before the Yankees pulled off their threepeat from 1998-2000 the last team to repeat were the Yankees in 1977-1978.  Even the great Yankees teams of the 1990’s had a couple bumps in the road getting knocked out of the playoffs in 1997 after winning the series in 1996 and then losing the World Series to the Diamondbacks in 2001.  They could’ve won 6 in a row – but they didn’t.   Nobody repeated in the 1980’s after a stretch in the 1970’s that saw the A’s (1972-1974), Reds (1975-1976) and the Yankees (1977-1978) dominate the World Series.  The Reds were really impressive in their repeat year, sweeping out the Phillies in the NLCS and then the Yankees in the World Series.

Unfortunately this isn’t the 1970’s anymore and even though free agency came into play in 1977 teams still managed to stay together for anywhere from 5-10 years back then.  That doesn’t happen anymore so the team chemistry that is needed to win year after year is interrupted by Free Agency.

3. Phillies Rely Too Much On The Long Ball

Even with the speedy Rollins and Victorino at the top of the lineup, the Phillies slug their way onto the scoreboard.   Even Jason Werth isn’t stealing as much anymore while watching his homerun and rbi numbers climb.  The Phillies are an American League style team playing in the National League, and teams with big time power like the Phillies are prone to big time slumps.  When was the last time we saw the Phillies actually manufacture a run by stealing or even bunting?  Its all about timing, and if one of those slumps comes in October then its “See Ya Later” time for the Phillies.

2. Ryan Howard’s Inability To Hit Lefties

I love the big man, and who wouldn’t given the numbers he puts up year after year? If the Phillies are going to repeat, then they need Howard to drive in runs in big situations, and you better believe that any manager out there will make sure if he gets beat by Howard it will be with a lefty on the mound.  That’s why the Dodgers went out and got George Sherrill from the Orioles.  The Rockies picked up Beimel from the Nationals.   “Ryno-Mite” is hitting .195 with a .279 on-base percentage and .314 slugging percentage against lefties this year compared to .309, .390 and .680 against righties.  He has hit just 3 homers off of left handed pitching last night and he looked over matched last night against the D-Backs Schlereth who needed just three pitches to handle the big man.

1. Brad Lidge

Isn’t it amazing what a difference a year can make? Lidge has just been awful this year.  His era is over seven and he’s blown eight saves including one last Saturday against the Braves which cost the Phillies the sweep.  Lidge simply isn’t what he was last year and doesn’t appear able to hold one run leads which you have to have in playoff series in October against the other best teams in the league.  I think Manuel is being stubborn here and really needs to examine  going to a matchup scenario for the ninth inning.   Didn’t we watch another Phillies manager named Fregosi lose a World Series because of the same kind of stubborness as he ran a tired Mitch Williams out there night after night? Even Lou Piniella, who I belive is just as old school as Manuel, saw the light with Kevin Gregg and made a switch going to Carlos Marmol.  It might not work, but don’t you at least have to give it a shot? The definition of madness is doing the same thing over and over again expecting a different result and I think the Phillies are teetering on the edge of that with Lidge and that could very well cost them another championship.

So, there you have it.  My five reasons why the Phillies won’t repeat this year.  These aren’t the only reasons and if you have others you’d like to put out there please either comment here or e-mail me at .   I’ll respond to e-mails during my next “Just A Bit Outside” podcast on Monday, August 24th.

PSB Latest

• Philles-Mets: Little drama this time around
• Phillies sweep D-Backs convincingly
• MVP Cole Hamels takes back seat to Cliff Lee
• Is this guy for real ?
• Are Eagles really a contender ?